Our Place in Time
How humanity’s circumstance points to a simulation.
June 5, 2023
I’ve had a persistent hunch that if there were sentient beings who had the power to simulate and plunge themselves into any reality of their choosing, it would ultimately, maybe unexpectedly, look a lot like the one we’re currently in. Furthermore, I think they’d choose to inhabit roughly the same time we occupy regarding our stage in the progress of intelligent life. Now, maybe I’m unimaginative and can’t conceive of more interesting alternatives, but for anyone who entertains the possibility of simulated realities, I do think there are surprisingly important elements behind my conviction that deserve attention. When stepping back for a more panoramic view of ourselves, we might see that our current disposition lends just a little more credence to the whole simulation idea.
What might be one of the most interesting things to experience in a simulation? As fun as it sounds to rule kingdoms and zip through exotic galaxies, I think the best use of this existential technology would be to provide a profoundly existential experience. The mastery of this technology would essentially be the mastery of reality itself, especially if all of reality is a causal loop, which would actually require this capability to exist. As such, I think the most amazing experience would be to discover the reality of one’s own existence for the “first” time. It would be like playing a game of hide and seek with yourself by willingly burying yourself in a simulation and assuming a state of ignorance, but giving yourself enough clues and intellect to solve the puzzle all over again with the same wonderment afforded by a first time experience. That seems like a pretty fun way to spend time.
But this experience requires a kind of sweet spot of intelligence and scientific progress – too primitive, you can’t even fathom its possibility; too advanced, the game is too obvious. But where we are – yes, you and I, in this universe – seems to be perfect. From an epistemological standpoint, this could be a futile proposition. Even if we are in a simulation, we may never have a way of truly knowing. But for fun, let’s take an inventory of where we are as a sentient species at this particular place and time to see what “coincidences” we find.
We’re smart enough to craft intricate theories about the nature of reality, but not smart enough to know exactly what the right one is. We’re technologically advanced enough to start manipulating the building blocks of reality through quantum computing, but not advanced enough to have mastered it. We’re conscious enough to show concern about our place in reality, but we’re becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the answers of the past. Oh, and all of these characteristics involve incredible changes that have happened astonishingly recently, and we’ve just been slapped across the face with the realization that more incredible changes are around the corner due to a newly emerging form of intelligence.
The scientific breakthroughs of the 20th century have just given us towers of theory, particularly in physics, that make us feel like we’re within a fingertip’s reach of a theory of everything, but we can’t quite fit the final nagging pieces together between general relativity and quantum mechanics.
We’re also hot on the heels of technological development like we’ve never seen. We went from steam engines and telegraphs to interplanetary vehicles and a global internet in roughly 100 years, and the 21st century has very recently birthed quantum computing, a technology that leverages fundamental physical phenomena like superposition, entanglement, and tunneling to achieve computations that are not possible on traditional computers. If there is a technology that can simulate reality as we know it with all of its weird quirks, it would have to be some highly advanced form of quantum computing; we’re lightyears away from that level of sophistication today, but we can see a sliver of its possibility.
On top of that, we’ve recently entered an era where people are parting ways en masse with millennia-old worldviews carried by religion, a deeply-rooted social and structural staple of our entire written history. And while it’s still unthinkable for many to abandon their beliefs, there’s no denying that religious affiliation is rapidly declining.
Why are we this smart? Why are we this advanced? Why do any of us care to have a worldview at all? Is there even a “why” aside from adaptation and survival? Even so, just try to put into perspective this period we occupy in the grand scheme of, you know, a universe. Of all the places and times we could exist – we’re not primitive organisms or even early hominids merely interested in scavenging for food, and we’re not conquerors of all the knowledge and satisfaction the universe has to offer. We’re somewhere in between. Better yet, we’re at a specific inflection point.
The accessibility of information, particularly through the internet, has certainly been a commonality behind many recent changes. We can develop more informed opinions, challenge prior beliefs, and quickly build upon previous ideas. But still, is it mere circumstance that we happen to be born into an era where, for the first time ever, we’re given access to virtually all of human knowledge through a device we carry in our pockets? And what could a smarter version of ourselves do with that same information? It seems like we won’t have to wait long to find out.
Large language models like GPT-4 have commanded our attention with an urgency that almost nobody expected. We’ve already seen AI-generated art and literature that is near-indistinguishable from human work – a simulation of our innate creativity, or perhaps the key to it. And this is just the beginning; we haven’t yet fully achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI), although now few doubt its inevitability. Experts say the step after that is artificial superintelligence (ASI), where the intellectual capabilities of these systems are far superior to those of humans in virtually all domains. How likely is it now that ASI will emerge? With its superior intelligence, what will it achieve that we could not? Will it find our theory of everything? Will it use that theory to build better quantum computers? Will it use those computers to simulate universes? Are we in one of its simulations, picking up on its carefully placed clues? Are we an extension of it, a way for it to play its own game? Those futuristic concepts are starting to look a little less absurd, a significant leap from our near past when they were entirely incomprehensible.
So I’m brought back to the present. Maybe we exist now, deliberating the nature of our existence, because this part is the most fun. We don’t have all the answers, but we’re far enough along to at least contemplate possibilities. A little mystery is interesting. If people only wanted to know the ending of a movie, they wouldn’t bother watching it. Our particular movie has highs and lows, good and bad – who knows why some of these side plots were written. Maybe there is no point. But maybe, just maybe, an incredible story is finally coming into focus.
- Chris